If you’re serious about investing in 2025, you should read this…

If you read the national news, you’d be forgiven for thinking that the market is on its backside.

But, if you read the local news here in Christchurch, you’d be forgiven for thinking…’things are looking pretty good’.

But this current market lens needs a wider view.

We need to be watching the unpredictable events from overseas, both in potentials tariffs and escalated conflict.

And closer to home, we’re certainly watching Wellington and Auckland.

But, our resilient little city is doing what it does best, punching through these market waves with relative ease.

The Upside, The Downside and the Inside Track

On one side, reports from CoreLogic suggest the market is still declining, with house prices falling for the ninth consecutive month, sales activity down, and more listings on the market than usual.

The narrative suggests that now is a time for caution.

But the devil is in the detail…

Certain segments of the market - notably Our Garden City - seem to be operating under a different set of conditions.

Prices remain relatively stable, demand is steady and key infrastructure projects are still driving growth.

I drive past Te Kaha (sorry, the One New Zealand Stadium) every day and marvel at its speedy performance in the central city anchor project race against the Metro Sports Arena to be completed first…

This all raises a key question: Is Christchurch bucking the trend, or is the wider property downturn just taking longer to hit?

The Case for Caution: New Zealand’s Market is Still Weak

Let's be honest. If you have a mortgage and you eat food on a daily basis - life is expensive! The ‘mortgaged middle’ is short of excess, dispensable cash which has a knock on to the wider economy.

Meaning more people need to cash out of their homes (listings go up).

And there’s more choice on the market for buyers (prices go down)

CoreLogic’s latest data paints a picture of a property market still under pressure.

House prices fell another 0.4% in November, marking a full nine months of consecutive declines.
There are 25% more homes on the market compared to the five-year average, meaning sellers are struggling to shift properties.
Sales activity remains 10% below normal seasonal levels, showing that demand is still softer than usual.

On paper, this looks like conditions for a buyer’s market - if the funds allow.

But the bigger question is: Have we hit the bottom yet?

The Case for Christchurch: A Different Market Cycle

While many parts of New Zealand are still experiencing corrections from the overheated market of 2021, Christchurch presents a different picture.

Affordability remains strong – Unlike Auckland or Wellington, Christchurch never saw extreme price spikes. A brand-new build is still well under $600K (we even have options under $500k), making it one of the most accessible major cities for buyers.
Infrastructure projects are still in play – Large-scale developments like Te Kaha, Christchurch Hospital expansion and continued transport upgrades are keeping demand steady and will boost the city’s liveability and values when completed.
Supply constraints persist – While listings have increased, new housing supply is still playing catch-up with demand.

Christchurch didn’t experience the boom-and-bust cycle in the same way Auckland and Wellington did. Instead, its growth has been more measured, which might explain why it hasn’t needed a major correction.

Standing strong as per its resilient reputation.

So, What Happens Next?

The key factor that will determine whether Christchurch continues to buck the trend or eventually falls in line with the national downturn is interest rates.

The Reserve Bank has already begun the rate cut, and further reductions are expected next week - most experts tipping 0.5% reduction - and banks are already jumping the starter's gun to hit that magical sub-5% mark. They want to lend that money out…

When borrowing costs decrease, two things will happen:

Buyers who were sidelined by high rates will re-enter the market, boosting demand.
Property prices will likely stabilise or begin to rise again as affordability improves.

More money is needed in the economy, and the Government’s announcement this week that they’re loosening the foreign investment threshold is (in our humble opinion) a little late - this could have been done in their ‘100 day plan’ (which was pretty weak tbf).

But, this is property, and property is historically cyclical!

Many believe we are in the bottom and beginning to rise (think 7:30 on the ‘property clock’)

Final Thoughts

With immigration loosening and interest rates beginning to look affordable once again, property looks to be back on the menu.

But, we actually don’t want to see rapid rises (honestly), we want to see a steady market that rewards good developers for building good stock.

And with Christchurch’s magnetism lately, we foresee more people making the move. The popularity and population continues to grow.

We’ll all recover - just some have a little further to go than others…

Auckland will pick up when immigration numbers begin ticking upwards again (the recent reforms will certainly help this). The city's duality with international migrants and property prices is undeniable!

Wellington will pick up if Labour or the left-leaning parties get in.

But Christchurch, we just treat that dip like a pot hole on New Brighton road - “barely slowed us down mate!”

Thanks for reading. Please get in touch if there is anything we can help you with on your property journey.

Ant - Director at Rosefern Homes